VJ Peters
(Sales Representative)

 

Honesty . Professionalism . Service

 

Canadian real estate buyers got hit with another quiet hurdle last week. The Bank of Canada (BoC) raised interest rates, and with it, up went the posted 5 year mortgage rate. Here’s how that’s going to impact your borrowing patterns, and how much more it’s going to cost you.

Bank Of Canada’s 5 Year Rate Rises To 5.14%

The increase of interest rates generally leads to a rise in the BoC’s posted mortgage rate, but the full increase isn’t always passed on. The overnight interest rate increased by 0.25 percentage points, but 5 year conventional was only hiked by 0.15 percentage points. This brings the 5 year conventional to 5.14%, which doesn’t seem that high. However, the hike does hit potential homebuyers in a couple of ways.

That Small Hike Reduces Borrowing Power By Over 1.6%

The small hike does translate to a significant reduction in borrowing power, sometimes called “affordability.” The hike from 4.99% to 5.14% reduces borrowing power by about 1.68%. For example, a household earning $100,000 at a rate of 4.99%, would have been able to borrow ~$534,594 for a mortgage. The new hike to 5.14% would mean that same household would only be able to borrow $525,577. The $9,017 decline is just one of the hurdles, that are going to get worse with higher rates.

How That Translates To Real Prices

The amount of interest paid is also increases significantly. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) published a composite aggregate benchmark price of $600,300 in December. A composite aggregate benchmark is the price of a typical home across Canada, for those that don’t know. Let’s use that as an example of the extra expense incurred with the hike.

On a conventional mortgage, you would need to put 20% down. This brings the mortgage size on a typical home to $480,240. If you get a fixed rate mortgage just a couple of weeks ago at 4.99%, you will have paid $446,795 in interest over 30 years, on top of the purchase price. At 5.15%, the interest paid over 30 years would jump to $462,700. That’s $15,905 more expensive, for the same home. Now most of you would be paying lower than the BoC’s 5 year mortgage rate, but ideally it averages out around here, after rates are done climbing. Although it can get more or less expensive, depending on how rates change in the future.

 

Low interest rates are soon to be a thing of the past, which will have an interesting impact on the home buying market. Borrowers, who were already hit with a stress test this year, will have their borrowing power reduced. This could increase the number of people that would have been eliminated by the stress test. On the flip side, rising rates could inspire more home buyers to try and close a fixed rate as soon as possible.

 

The market is currently anticipating two more rate hikes this year, which means an even larger reduction to mortgage borrowing room, and even more spent on interest rates. How do you think this will shake out? 

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Canadian real estate buyers are going to see a massive reduction in buying power, on top of stress tests. The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) stress test came at a very peculiar time. Canadians are hearing the economy is booming, but are also being subjected to a stress test. The test prevents buyers from any potential interest rate shock, but this is an odd decision.

Rising interest rates have built-in protection. They already lower the amount households can borrow as the economy improves. To illustrate how the stress test complicates the housing market, we prepared some projection. If you thought the stress test was bad news for real estate, prepare for an even worse environment with rising interest rates.

 

Projecting Mortgage Rates Based On Bond Yields, About the Numbers

The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) does a great job projecting interest rates, so today’s model is built on top of their numbers. Coincidentally, when I spoke with Luan Ngo, senior economist from the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO), he also had similar projections. Both of their projections err on the conservative side of positive. That is, they’re both optimistic on the economy, but they’ve been off by 3 to 6 months. That’s remarkably accurate, considering the number of moving parts in an economy. So today’s mortgage prime projections are based on these numbers.

There’s also a few other terms you’ll need to know if mortgage talk don’t typically get your motor running. For the mortgages, we’re going to be using 5 year fixed rates, with a 30 year amortization. This means two things, the rate the buyer enters with will be the same for 5 years. This is the most common term according to securitization pool analysis. A 30 year amortization means these borrowers will pay their mortgage off over 30 years. That’s longer than a typical conventional mortgage. The amount these households can borrow will be higher than real world conditions. We’re also going to assume great credit, because who doesn’t have that in Canada?

 

Bullish on the Economy, Means You’re Bearish on Housing

That said, if you’re bullish on the Canadian economy, you’re bearish on mortgage credit growth. As the economy strengthens, or is perceived to strengthen, interest rates climb as do mortgage lending rates. Currently the 5 year fixed rate, the most popular mortgage type, is at 4.99%. This number is projected to rise to 6.6% by the end of 2021. That seems like a small climb if you don’t deal with rates, but the 32.26% increase will have a huge impact on borrowing power.

The increase by itself reduces that amount that households can borrow. For example, a household making $100,000 at the end of 2017 could have borrowed a $534,000 with decent credit. By 2021, a household earning the same amount would see that number drop down to $448,000. The 16% reduction is based solely on the improvement of the economy, translating to higher interest rates. Then there’s the stress test that goes live this year.

 

Throwing a stress test on that reduces buying power significantly, on top of the rate climb. As of 2018, conventional mortgages are now stress tested 200 bps higher than the Bank of Canada’s 5 year fixed. Today’s qualifying rate of 6.99% would see that household’s $534,000 maximum mortgage drop to $431,299 – a 20% reduction. If the stress test is maintained through 2021, that $100,000 household can only borrow $369,395. The compounding of rising rates and the stress test would see a ~30% decrease in borrowing power. This makes it a lot harder to buy a home.

 

Incomes Rise, Median Household Still Loses Over 25% of Credit

Most households would ideally see their incomes rise, to mitigate some of this pressure. To demonstrate a more real world example, we can use median household income projections. At the end of 2017, it’s estimated that the median household across Canada could have borrowed $442,168. As their income rises, as well as interest rates, we project the median family would be able to borrow ~$399,627 by 2021. That’s “only” a reduction of ~9.62%, so the rise of income does help mitigate some of the lost borrowing power.

 

However, that was without a stress test, which it’s unclear if this is a temporary or permanent measure. If you add a stress test on top of that same household, that 2021 mortgage is now only ~$328,893. That’s ~25.61% lower than today’s borrowing room, after adjusting for incomes climbing. It would be a little surprising to see a stress test continue to this point, but it’s not great for prices if they do.

There’s limited use to applying projections to the median household across Canada. The only thing this really tells us is there will be a significantly smaller national buying pool. That’s on top of the reduction we’re already going to see from stress testing, without an increase to rates. 

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Talk about high-rise returns.

 

Despite what has been a truly tumultuous year for real estate in the Greater Toronto Area, condos have officially had a moment. As market sales and prices plunged, following the implementation of the Ontario Fair Housing Plan in April, high-rise owners were sitting pretty. In fact, they benefitted from the strongest price growth of all home types.

Condos drove the 2017 housing market

 

According to year-end numbers from the Toronto Real Estate Board, over the calendar year, condo prices in the GTA rose a robust 23 per cent to an average price of $512,478 — nearly double that of detached homes, which increased 12.8 per cent to $1,098,951.

 

Therein lies the issue: With the average house price still topping $1 million, home buyers are increasingly seeking cheaper options. Prices for middle-market home types, such as Toronto townhouses and semi-detached homes, rose 16.5 and 16.2 per cent to $643,330 and $782,756, respectively.

 

“It is interesting to note that home price growth in the second half of 2017 differed substantially, depending on market segment,” says Jason Mercer, TREB’s director of market analysis.

 

“The detached market segment — the most expensive on average — experienced the slowest pace of growth, as many buyers looked to less expensive options. Conversely, the condominium apartment segment experienced double-digit growth, as condos accounted for a growing share of transactions.”

 

While the entirety of the market slowed overall in the last three quarters of the year, condos were least impacted, with sales softening 9.6 per cent. Detached home activity suffered from a decrease of 23 per cent, semi-detached 20.5 per cent, and townhomes slowed six per cent.

 

What’s more, the new mortgage stress-test rules will reduce home buying budgets by as much as 20 per cent. So, the flock to the most affordable housing won’t end anytime soon.

 

Which Toronto condos saw the greatest price growth?

 

But not all condo inventory is created — or coveted — equally. So, which Toronto-area unit owners saw the greatest returns? According to a past sales analysis, condos south of Queen Street West enjoyed the greatest bang for their buck: nine out of 10 of those buildings, saw price-per-square-foot values surge more than 30 per cent.

Translation: If you purchased one of those units in 2016 for $400,000, you’re about $120,000 richer in equity today.

 

Check out the infographic below to see which Toronto condos increased most in value in 2017.

 

 

 

 

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When Canadians make small talk, there are often two topics du jour: the weather and the real estate market. Impending blizzards aside, there’s nothing more Canuck than hashing out home prices. And there was plenty of fat to chew in 2017 …

What’s really driving the market? Will mortgage rates rise? Have new policies taken things too far?

As the saying goes, time will tell, as many of changes made last year will play out through 2018. Here are four trends buyers and sellers should keep in mind this year.

 

1. It’ll be tougher to be a borrower

This year won’t be an easy one for mortgage borrowers. A new crop of restrictions anticipated to slash affordability by 20 per cent, took effect on January 1. And it’s widely expected the Bank of Canada will hike mortgage rates over the course of the year.

Faced with steeper mortgage qualification and overall pricier debt, experts say home buyers who would have once turned to the “A” lending market, may seek mortgages elsewhere.

“Those currently within a mortgage term and coming up to a refinance or renewal will now have to tolerate a rate that’s two per cent higher,” says Mike Bricknell, a mortgage broker at CanWise Financial. “If those borrowers have made a down payment on the smaller side — as in, they’re very close to their 80-per-cent equity threshold — they may not be able to bear such a substantial rate hike,” he says. “This would also be problematic for young couples seeking their first homes, who traditionally make smaller down payments when breaking into the market.”

The latest changes target buyers with minimum 20-per-cent down payments, so the pain will be felt among move-up purchasers and first-time buyers, as all new mortgage applicants must undergo a stress-test to qualify.

The new rules also ban “co-lending” arrangements, which combine multiple loans to help a borrower get past qualification requirements. Bricknell says the applicants who rely on these loans are often among the most vulnerable, and they’ll be left with few reputable avenues.

“For those who don’t fit within the ‘big bank’ criteria, it can be very difficult to obtain this kind of financing,” explains Bricknell. “Restricting this type of loan will reduce these borrowers’ options, sending them instead to the dark, ‘private’ loan market, where super-high rates and fees are the norm. In these situations, repayments tend to be interest-only, and can make it even more difficult for those in challenging financial situations to dig themselves back out.”

Economists also heavily expect upward movement from the Bank of Canada, which reversed its low-rate trend this year, with hikes in July and September. Stronger economic fundamentals are paving the way for this tighter take on monetary policy, which the Bank heavily alluded to in its December-rate announcement.

“While higher interest rates will likely be required over time, Governing Council will continue to be cautious, guided by incoming data in assessing the economy’s sensitivity to interest rates, the evolution of economic capacity and the dynamics of both wage growth and inflation,” the Bank stated.

 

2. Condos will fuel the market

It has been a roller coaster for home sale trends in Canada’s largest urban centres. But one housing type was consistently in demand throughout the year – condos. Multi-family housing has been on a tear, outpacing all other segments, in terms of price growth in both the Toronto and Vancouver markets.

Why are buyers increasingly choosing condo living, rather than buying detached? Affordability is the main reason, as traditional houses simply remain too expensive for the average buyer.

So first-time buyers and baby boomers alike have piled into the high-rise market, leading to steady price growth, while the detached segment stagnated. In Toronto, November saw the cost of the average condo soar 17 per cent, compared to a 5.1-per-cent drop in house values.

However, the price gap between the housing types remains too wide for houses to become a bargain anytime soon. According to TREB’s November numbers, the average detached home price stood at $1,276,184, compared to $555,396 for the average condo – a difference of $720,788.

(The difference is even more astronomical in Vancouver, where detached homes cost $1,608,000 and condos $648,200 – a difference of nearly a million dollars.)

This casts more urgency on the need for “missing middle” housing – such as low-rise walk-ups and townhomes in urban markets. While Vancouver and Toronto townhouses both experience steady price appreciation, sales remain low due to lack of supply.

 

3. Developers will take a family focus

It’s for this reason that families — especially those who wish to live in downtown cores — are increasingly taking to high-rise living, a shift that has not gone unnoticed by developers. In a reversal from the “micro-condo” trend popular with single professionals and investors, more developers are creating larger units with the end-user in mind. This results in the creation of more units with three or more bedrooms.

In addition to the typical adults-only party rooms and hot tubs, kid-friendly amenities, such as youth fitness, playroom, and daycare spaces are also becoming the norm in new developments.

In Toronto, new guidelines were unveiled this year as part of the city’s study, Growing Up: Planning for Children in Vertical Communities — which calls for family-oriented features such as lobby stroller space, on-site playgrounds, and even extra-wide hallways.

 

4. The focus will shift from foreigners to flippers

The mysterious out-of-country buyer has long been reviled as the catalyst behind rising home prices. These buyers are accused of parking their cash in the Canadian real estate market to appreciate tax-free, while leaving homes standing empty. This effectively prices locals out of their own neighbourhoods.

The perception that foreign buyer activity was heating prices in the Vancouver and Toronto real estate markets prompted the respective provincial governments to take action. To that end, a 15-per-cent foreign buyer tax was introduced in Metro Vancouver in August 2016, while Ontario rolled out a Greater Golden Horseshoe version, as part of the April Fair Housing Plan.

But there are problems: there was no hard data to back these measures and they don’t appear to have worked.

While both markets took a tumble in the months following, they’ve since rebounded. Recovery has been especially voracious in Vancouver, with sales soaring 26 per cent in November and the average price spiking to $1,046,900 — a new high. While Ontario activity has been more tepid, a warmer-than-usual autumn market prompted the Toronto Real Estate Board to say the “psychological impact” of the tax was starting to “unwind.”

To cap it off, the first official numbers compiled by Statistics Canada and the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reveal foreign buyer levels are relatively low. They account for just 4.9 per cent of activity in Toronto and 4.8 per cent in Vancouver.

So if foreign buyers aren’t the impetus behind price growth, who is? Recent reports reveal the culprit is likely much closer to home. It appears domestic investors and “paper flippers” snap up new inventory and sell them anew — sometimes multiple times — before the first sale closes, for a higher price. It’s a practice that Ontario Finance Minister Charles Sousa has derided as “property scalping.”

Because flipping occurs before the initial sale closes, there is no data on its prevalence. However, the Canada Revenue Agency aims to find out. Since foreign buyer and capital gains taxes apply only when a real estate title is registered, the CRA is cracking down on any potential tax evasion. The Agency is demanding the sales records from 2,800 Toronto-based developers, with plans to do so in Vancouver as well.

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More new mortgage rules come into effect January 1, which will make it trickier to negotiate a mortgage for many Canadians. But with a little expert advice, I can help ensure you have a happy new year that keeps you on the path to prosperity for the coming year and beyond.

  1. That “best” 5-year rate? It probably isn’t. Fact is, a “best rate quote” is now meaningless, because mortgage pricing is now based on multiple factors. Everything depends on your personal situation. That’s why I start with an in-depth assessment, and then review a broad range of lenders and products for the best fit for you.
  2. Going variable and long may pay off. If you have over 20% equity, you may want to consider a 30-year amortization mortgage. Benefits can be significant and outweigh any rate premium – more purchasing power, easier mortgage qualifying, and lower payments to boost cash flow or to allow you to divert cash to build a savings buffer or use for investing. Taking a variable-rate mortgage could also improve your mortgage qualifying, then you can lock in later. Let’s discuss if these strategies might work for you.
  3. The devil is in the details. You can save thousands by making sure you get a mortgage that has a fair prepayment penalty and will also treat you fairly at renewal. Don’t end up paying exorbitant fees or be forced to take a high rate at renewal. Look deeper than rate.
  4. High-ratio insurance costs more, except when it doesn’t. While counter intuitive, lenders offer the best rates to borrowers who need mortgage insurance because they have less than 20% down. So even if you have more than 20% down and don’t need mortgage insurance, it may actually be worth purchasing. You’ll get a lower rate and better options at renewal. I can run the numbers and see if it makes sense for you.
  5. At renewal, insured mortgages are gold. Lenders love insured mortgages. If you have one, be sure to check out the competitive landscape at renewal. If you aren’t sure if your mortgage is insured or not, I can find out.
  6. No company paycheque? Start building your case. If you are self-employed, get in touch now for advice on mortgage planning for the future. I will advise you on what documentation and information you’ll need so that I can build a strong case on your behalf for lenders.
  7. Does a collateral mortgage make sense? A bank collateral mortgage is registered for more than the value of the home at closing. It can be difficult to transfer and you may find yourself locked in with that bank. Always get a second opinion!
  8. Let renters help pay your mortgage. A home with a rental suite could help you become a homeowner in that neighbourhood you love, or help you offset mortgage payments in the house you’re in.
  9. Keep good credit habits. The best rates go to borrowers with the best credit scores. Keep up good credit habits: pay your bills on time, never let your debt exceed more than 30% of your limit, and don’t be tempted to apply for store cards “to save on your purchase today”.
  10. Let’s keep a dialogue going. Wherever you are in your homeownership journey, a great conversation at any time can identify all the ways you can save thousands of dollars in interest and fees during your mortgage years.
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VJ Peters
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Office: 416-298-2888
Fax: 416-754-2100